Well, what about the sea level? (Updated 2009-11-11)

IPCC does not give much solid information about the background calculations done to estimate the very modest increases they have predicted to the end of this century (+0.2 to +0.6 meters).

I intend to develop a practical model based on:

• Radiation balance (immediate effect)
• CO2 uptake by the sea vs. temperature and open sea area
• Fraction of ice-covered sea area (follows ice-age cycles)
• Lateral heat spreading (delayed effects, 150 years)
• and more...

This will not be finished very soon, but stay tuned. The result might become a surprise... The very first estimate is as shown below. It is interesting that the Delta Commission now has published estimates for 2100 to be 0,65-1,3 meters and for 2200 to be between 2-4 meters. Slightly below my earlier calculations.

According to that simple calculation we should prepare for around + 130 cm increase in sea level up to year 2100. But much more of calculations remain, so stay tuned. It may be worse.

Meanwhile you may look at a map and find out if your town will become flooded. An example of the Royal Castle in Stockholm.

Örjan Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research
http://hir.nu and http://hudcancer.nu